Israel Iran conflict and the role of Arabian nations#
Sankalpajit Saikia
The attacks of Israeli troops on Iran began on Friday, which seems to be carefully strategized, pre-planned and was a collective effort to dismantle military equipment of the Iranian Army. Israel signalled an opportunity of a “long-term war” against Iran. In the horrific attack conducted by Israeli forces on the Iranian Army, there was a disastrous impact and terrible consequences. It was quite successful from the Israeli perspective as they were able to hit the military bases of Iran. They succeeded in killing several senior Army officers of Iran, including the head of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Hossein Salami, and the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces, Mohammed Bagheri. Prominent Iranian nuclear scientists are also dead.
Iran has been setting up a nuclear infrastructure in Tehran, and regarding this issue, bilateral negotiations are going on with the involvement of the USA, the principal ally of Israel. This actually poses a strong threat towards Israeli superiority all over the Middle East region. The historical reason behind the Israeli dominance in the Middle East is not only characterized by their own conventional arsenal or long-term US friendship, but also by the unipolar authority of nuclear arms. Not a single country has their nuclear project except Israel in that region. But now Iran is moving forward to build a nuclear power project in their capital. So, Israel basically aimed to prevent Iran from completing its nuclear infrastructure.
The point should be noted that Iran sponsors Islamic military groups like Hezbollah, Hamas, etc. Netanyahu has previously remarked Iran as “the head of the octopus” with “tentacles all around from the Houthis to Hezbollah to Hamas.” The idea is that Iran is the boss of the network of anti-Israeli groups, where the target of Israel is to jeopardize all of them as part of the “axis of resistance.”
The Israeli authority, especially Netanyahu, is being criticized for this military action. It is being discussed that Netanyahu glorifies war and uses it to fulfill his political intentions. In the eyes of his critics, Netanyahu has become dependent upon war. The internal politics of Israel is broadly characterized by anti-incumbency against Netanyahu. He has been facing certain tensions or challenges in order to secure his seat. The corruption charges can be diverted by him through the glorification of war. Israeli political analyst Ori Goldberg said, “For Netanyahu, the difference between foreign policy and domestic policies cannot be distinguished.”
The Israel-Iran conflict escalated further with Iran launching missile attacks in response to Israeli strikes. This development heightens regional tensions, drawing in Arabian countries whose roles are becoming increasingly pivotal. The role of Saudi Arabia and the USA will also be tricky in re-shaping the geopolitical situation of the Middle East and the West Asian region.
Israel launched a heavy missile attack on Iran and, from their perspective, this was done in order to counter nuclear threats—particularly due to Iran’s nuclear power project. With the response from Iranian soldiers, it can be notified that this Middle East region is going to experience heavy and complex geopolitical tensions. Now one question is raised among everyone: what will be the role of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries in this situation? Let us discuss this broadly.
Saudi Arabia is conventionally recognised as a potential enemy for Iran. They are engaged in a proxy conflict over influence in the Middle East and other regions of the Muslim world. Now in the atmosphere of geopolitical tensions, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries will try to play the cards of “global politics” according to their own betterment. After the horrific attack on Iran by Israel, the Saudi Arabian authority tweeted on X and condemned “the blatant Israeli aggressions against the brotherly Islamic Republic of Iran.” The UAE also condemned this terrible attack. But the fact is that, despite showing condemnation, the Gulf nations want to make Iran weakened.
Historically, Arabian states have always been against Iran. Iran is basically nurtured by Shia Muslim ideology, therefore Sunni-dominated Muslim Arabian countries have had problems with Iran. During the Syrian Civil War, the Assad government was highly supported by Iran, whereas the other Arabian countries conveyed their support to revolutionary extremist groups of Syria against the Assad government. Now all tensions have increased. These tensions are “re-hyphenated” due to the Israel-Iran conflict. Sanam Vakil, Director of Chatham House think tank’s Middle East and North Africa Programme said, “Gulf states are very much caught between a rock and a hard place.”
Arabian states are now facing real challenges. They are regarded as allies of Israel and host USA-sponsored military bases in several areas of Arabian countries. The alliance that is maintained by Arab countries with the USA can pose risks with re-attacks from Iran; therefore, Saudi Arabia tries to maintain a tricky diplomatic position of “so-called” neutrality. If Iran adopts a policy of “escalation” then Saudi Arabia, along with the UAE and Qatar, will face various problems. The USA will also have to depend upon their military bases situated in areas of Arabian nations. The Arabian nations hope that the Trump administration will negotiate properly about the nuclear programs of Iran. In the last month, the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar visited the United States of America and met Donald Trump and urged him not to order strikes on the nuclear military bases of Iran (according to the U.S. news outlet Axios).
Iran is aided by a rainbow-like group of extremist organizations such as Hamas, Houthis and Hezbollah. Historically, we have examples of their attacks on Arabian regions. In 2019, the Houthis hit Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq processing plant and Khurais oil field, while the UAE was targeted by attacks from the Houthis in Abu Dhabi in 2022. Therefore, though the Arabian nations became happy about the destruction of Iranian infrastructure by the attack of Israel, yet they are more concerned about their own security in this burning situation.
So, Arabian countries will apply dual political policies. On one hand, they will silently applaud the “demobilization” of Iranian economy, and on the other hand, they will create some distance from Israel in order to secure themselves from the potential threat caused by Iranian retaliation. Diplomatic efforts may be crucial in preventing further escalation. The situation remains volatile, with potential far-reaching consequences for regional security and global geopolitics, affecting multiple stakeholders and interests.